Sunday, July 21, 2019

China’s New Imposing Military Bases: Artificial Islands in the South China Sea

In its expanding empire, China had begun to exert colonial control — even without formal colonization — in places like Cambodia, Myanmar (Burma), and Sri Lanka. The muscle used to intimidate these and other regions into compliance is in part military and in part economic.

In a novel development, where no convenient land base for its military is present, China has begun the construction of manmade islands as bases for weapons and soldiers. Already in 2014, Robert Kaplan wrote:

Take the Spratlys, with significant oil and natural gas deposits, which are claimed in full by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam, and in part by Malaysia, the Philippines, and Brunei. China has built concrete helipads and military structures on seven reefs and shoals. On Mischief Reef, which China occupied under the nose of the Philippine navy in the 1990s, China has constructed a three-­story building and five octagonal concrete structures, all for military use. On Johnson Reef, China put up a structure armed with high-­powered machine guns.

When a superpower like China creates an island where none had previously existed, stocks that island with troops and missiles, and then makes claims on the waters in the region and on the shipping lanes through them, then nations like Vietnam and Malaysia can rightfully speak of extortion.

The nations around the South China Sea hope to offer some resistance to the Chinese, as Robert Kaplan reports:

Taiwan occupies Itu Aba Island, on which it has constructed dozens of buildings for military use, protected by hundreds of troops and twenty coastal guns. Vietnam occupies twenty-­one islands on which it has built runways, piers, barracks, storage tanks, and gun emplacements. Malaysia and the Philippines, as stated, have five and nine sites respectively, occupied by naval detachments. Anyone who speculates that with globalization, territorial boundaries and fights for territory have lost their meaning should behold the South China Sea.

While these nations are to be admired for struggling against the expanding Chinese imperialist power, they cannot stand alone against China and survive. With its large labor force and large manufacturing base, China is building missiles and battleships at a rate which these smaller nations cannot match.

The behavior of China in the South China Sea is parallel to the behavior of Athens in the Aegean Sea, as revealed in the ‘Melian Dialogue’ section of The Peloponnesian War by Thucydides.

When Chinese hegemony over the South China Sea is complete, it will control one of the most important shipping lanes in the world, and will be able to greatly influence the world’s economy, thereby affecting nearly every nation on earth.

Friday, July 5, 2019

Xi Jinping and His Vision of China As the Leader of a New World Order: Capabilities in Cyberwar, Space War, Conventional War, and Economic War

The current reign of Xi Jinping in China marks a high point in the consolidation of power and control. This can be seen de jure by the large number of official titles he has amassed for himself: Secretary General of the Communist Party of China, President of the People’s Republic of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Chairman of the National Security Commission of the Communist Party, Chairman of the Central Comprehensively Deepening Reforms Commission, Chairman of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, Chairman of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, and many others.

He holds all of these offices simultaneously. Like Louis XIV in France, Xi Jinping would be correct if he said, L’etat, c’est moi: ‘I am the state.’

Aside from the official titles, it is simply the case de facto that Xi is a dictator and an absolutist.

Robert Maginnis, as an insider in America’s military intelligence agencies, finds a quote from Steven Mosher accurate:

Dr. Steven Mosher, author of the 2017 book, Bully of Asia: Why China’s Dream Is the New Threat to World Order, said: “Xi Jinping is the new Chairman Mao, a thoroughly Communist dictator who has managed to seize control of the Party, the Army, and the Government. The new Red Emperor, as we should call him, is likely to be in power for decades to come. And he is not our friend. He is carrying out a new Cultural Revolution in China. Communist Party leader Xi’s China ‘Dream’ is the world’s nightmare. Xi ‘dreams’ of overturning the current U.S.-led world order and replacing it with [a new world order] … dominated by China. A world dominated by China would be less free, less democratic, and less safe, not only for Americans, but for the Chinese people themselves. Xi believes that international law and agreements are, as he has said, just ‘waste paper,’ or better put, ‘toilet paper.’”

As an uncontrolled autocrat, Xi Jinping poses a threat both to the Chinese people and to the global community of nations at large. It is clear that diplomacy is meaningless to Xi, and that negotiated treaties with him are a futile exercise, as Robert Maginnis writes:

China’s constitutional change to make Xi Jinping president for life is a harbinger of the authoritarian nation’s direction and a strategic threat to America.

To be sure, between Mao and Xi, China has had a number of leaders, all of whom demonstrated a relatively high degree of authoritarianism and absolutism. But Xi represents a zenith of those qualities, even in China.

It is easy for diplomats from other nations to misunderstand the situation in China, because the degree of autocracy and of a willingness to deceive are so extreme that the situation is non-intuitive for emissaries from other countries. Robert Maginnis quotes from a report given to Congress by Admiral Harry Harris:

“China has taken advantage of our openness,” Harris told the Senate Armed Services Committee in March 2018. “Our hope in the past has been that if we bring China into organizations like the World Trade Organization and include China in our military exercises and the like, and that somehow China will become like us.”

“The reality is that’s simply not true. China has taken advantage of our openness … to continue the path that they’ve always been on and we’re seeing that play out now in 2018. Certainly over the next 20 years or so that will be a concern,” Harris said.

Even while engaging in seemingly amiable talks with other governments, China is preparing for a variety of offensive scenarios. One outline goes like this: a three-pronged operation in which, simultaneously, China’s attack satellites would disable several U.S. satellites, instantly reducing communication, GPS, and logistical coordination capabilities; would hack into and disable computer networks on the ground in the United States, further handicapping transportation and communication, and crippling our economic infrastructure; and would move its armed forces into the South China Sea, an occupation which the U.S. would then be powerless to challenge or resist.

In such a scenario, China would have gained control of what is arguably the world’s single most important shipping lane, and have obtained hegemony over the nations around the South China Sea: Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, etc.

Admiral Harris explained that Beijing seeks regional hegemony and intends to oust America from Asia. It is developing the means to do that via systems such as the hypersonic glide weapons and stealth fighters. Besides, the admiral expressed concern about China’s militarization of islands in the South China Sea and its acquisition of icebreaker ships, although it has no Arctic coast.

China’s pronounced military buildup in recent years has a double motive: on the one hand, it can use massive armed forces to gain by threats and extortion what it wants, and so dominate without firing a shot; on the other hand, China is more than willing to go to war to achieve its objectives, and will use its military that way if necessary.

Beyond the South China Sea, Xi Jinping’s ambitions extend to Africa and beyond. Among smaller, less-developed “third world” nations, China’s tactic is a Mafia-like racket. It begins with China offering to help one of these nations with infrastructure project: building roads, dams, hospitals, water and sewage systems, electrical generating plants, etc. Such nations can’t afford to pay for these items, so China generously extends credit. When the nations are unable to make the payments on the loans, China offers to “forgive” the debt in return for placing permanent military bases in these nations, in return for rights to ship into, out of, and through these nations, and in return for exclusive rights which lock other nations out of what by now has become a vassal state.