Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Putin's Assertiveness

In December 1999, Russian President Boris Yeltsin resigned, and his post was taken by Vladimir Putin, who served as ‘acting president’ until formally elected in March 2000. At that time, Russia’s constitution limited a president to two consecutive four-year terms, much like the United States.

In March 2004, Putin was reelected. Serving from 2000 to 2008, his first stay in the presidency paralleled the years of his American counterpart, George W. Bush, who was in office from January 2001 until January 2009.

Over the eight years of Putin’s first presidency, observers in other nations around the world became increasingly concerned about both personal political liberty and about economic freedom inside Russia. Although Putin began his time in office by displaying a personally warm and friendly relationship with President Bush, the relationship cooled over the course of a decade.

Having worked in the KGB from 1975 to 1991, Putin had a reputation for ruthlessness. As Russia stabilized economically, in large part because of its reserves of oil and natural gas, and as the Russian economy began to exhibit signs of healthy growth, Putin seemed emboldened.

Despite his broad international knowledge and savvy political skills, Putin revealed a significant ignorance about the dynamics of western democracies. In a 2005 meeting with President Bush, he made comment evincing his belief that freely-elected leaders were able to control the news media and “fire” members of the press.

Extrapolating from his own experience, Putin assumed that, if a high-profile journalist were suddenly removed from employment, then it was probably the work of the country’s president. Putin did not understand that the press was free and independent to the degree that it could direct significant criticism at the president without fear of reprisal.

Throughout its history, Russia has never had a press that was free enough and powerful enough to remove a president from office, as the was the case with Nixon, or publicly discuss a president’s perjury to the extent that the president’s license to practice law was suspended, as was the case with Bill Clinton.

Meeting in Bratislava in Slovakia in 2005, Putin displayed his belief that President Bush controlled the press and could “fire” a reporter. Putin was speaking of Dan Rather, the disgraced CBS News anchorman, who had been fired, or forced to resign, because of his inaccurate reporting. Dan Rather had broadcast a story based on documents which later turned out to be forgeries. His employer believed that he had not exercised appropriate diligence in verifying his sources.

Putin failed to understand that CBS News had fired Dan Rather. Putin thought that President Bush had the power to do that. Clearly, Putin didn’t understand how things work inside the United States: a shocking degree of ignorance for a former KGB lieutenant. President Bush recalls Putin’s words at the 2005 summit meeting:

Over the course of eight years, Russia’s newfound wealth affected Putin. He became aggressive abroad and more defensive about his record at home. In our first one-on-one meeting of my second term, in Bratislava, I raised my concerns about Russia’s lack of progress on democracy. I was especially worried about his arrests of Russian businessmen and his crackdown on the free press. “Don’t lecture me about the free press,” he said, “not after you fired that reporter.”

After discovering what Putin thought about the American news media, Bush explained to him that he could lose credibility by displaying such ignorance. Putin had not believed that a United States president was powerless over the press.

Although western democracies were concerned about Putin, he found some willing instruments among them. France’s Jacques Chirac, whose political direction seemed to lurch from right to left, supported Putin.

Germany’s Gerhard Schröder, a representative of that country’s SPD party, had enabled Putin to negotiate a pipeline deal through the Baltic Sea, sending Russian natural gas directly to Germany. Schröder brokered a loan guarantee from the German government for one billion Euros to shore up the construction of Putin’s pipeline.

In return for helping Putin, and to the dismay of western democracies, Schröder was appointed to a well-paying and powerful post within the natural gas industry after his term as chancellor ended. President Bush describes the situation:

Putin was wily. As a quid pro quo for supporting Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schroeder in their efforts to counterbalance American influence, Putin convinced them to defend his consolidation of power in Russia. At a G-8 dinner in St. Petersburg, most of the leaders challenged Putin on his democratic record. Jacques Chirac did not. He announced that Putin was doing a fine job running Russia, and it was none of our business how he did it. That was nothing compared to what Gerhard Schroeder did. Shortly after the German chancellor stepped down from office, he became chairman of a company owned by Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned energy giant.

When the Russian constitution ended Putin’s first stint as president in 2008, he was elected prime minister. While he was prime minister (2008 to 2012), Dmitry Medvedev served as president. Medvedev and Putin had a close working relationship, and some observers considered Medvedev’s presidency to be an extension of Putin’s.

The provision of the Russian constitution which prevented Putin’s third consecutive term did not prevent a third non-consecutive term. During Putin’s tenure as prime minister, the constitution was altered to extend presidential terms from four years to six. In 2012, Putin was elected for his third term as president.

During Putin’s first eight years as president, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice acted as a check or foil to Putin’s international ambitions. During his third term, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has a times assumed a similar role vis-a-vis Putin, although at times moderating, as when she hesitated to encourage vigorous support of the Ukraine in the face of Putin’s invasion.