Over time, various nations have been seen as providing guidance.
For much of the twentieth century, the United States was a world leader. In the late twentieth century, the collected nations of Europe also emerged as a source of counsel.
Although the Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China were powerful in that same era, they were not necessarily leaders.
At the beginning of the twenty-first century, we see a shift in the global community. Those who were leaders are not automatically still leaders, as German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier notes:
Today both the United States and Europe are struggling to provide global leadership.
The United States has spent some of its political capital in the Middle East. Calling in favors from other nations to support U.S. efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan leaves the U.S. with less leverage in other situations.
Obama initiated a “surge” in Afghanistan, taking troop levels to over 100,000 soldiers. Prior to the Obama administration, troop levels had averaged under 20,000 and peaked around 30,000.
Some other nations were skeptical about Obama’s surge. He failed to stabilize Iraq or Afghanistan. Steinmeier writes:
When U.S. President Barack Obama assumed office in 2009, he began to rethink the United States’ commitment to the Middle East and to global engagements more broadly. His critics say that the president has created power vacuums that other actors, including Iran and Russia, are only too willing to fill.
On a different front, Obama’s Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, mismanaged America’s relationship with Vladimir Putin. The ruthless and clever Putin had been kept in check until Clinton announced a “reset” in U.S.-Russian relations. What the word ‘reset’ was supposed to mean was not clear, but Putin used it as an opportunity for press his expansionist agenda.
As the U.S. faced these challenges in foreign relations, Europe also faced problems. The European Union (EU) struggled with disagreements between its member nations: about immigration policy, about economic policy, about the admission of new member nations, about relations with Russia, and other topics.
As the EU worked on solving its own internal problems, it had less energy to look outward and take a leadership role in global questions. Steinmeier explains:
Meanwhile, the EU has run into struggles of its own. In 2004, the union accepted ten new member states, finally welcoming the former communist countries of eastern Europe. But even as the EU expanded, it lost momentum in its efforts to deepen the foundations of its political union. That same year, the union presented its members with an ambitious draft constitution, created by a team led by former French President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing. But when voters in France and the Netherlands, two of the EU’s founding nations, rejected the document, the ensuing crisis emboldened those Europeans who questioned the need for an “ever-closer union.” This group has grown steadily stronger in the years since, while the integrationists have retreated.
As the U.S. and EU, for their respective reasons, stepped back from influential roles, the nations of the world turned their attention to Germany, and to Angela Merkel.
They looked to Germany because it had maintained an impressive pattern of economic and political stability in the midst of rapid global change. Historian Stefan Kornelius writes:
It was at this moment that Angela Merkel became the focus of attention. Who was this woman who for so long had kept quiet, and who in only a few years had taken control of Germany’s conservative party? Who was this politician who rose almost unnoticed to lead the leaders of Europe? The Germans have been pondering over the mystery of Merkel for many years, trying to interpret her character and the inner workings of her mind. But now the whole world wants to know: how did she get into politics? What is her worldview? What are her values, her yardsticks? Merkel enjoys an interest in her as a person that rarely wanes – yet another reason why she has once more conquered the summit. This time she has come under scrutiny in her capacity as a stateswoman, a foreign-policy expert. What will she do if Germany’s objective increase of power is perceived as a threat? She has managed to make Germany’s dominance seem tolerable so far – but will it stay that way?
Under Merkel’s leadership, Germany has avoided debt and maintained a strong manufacturing and exporting sector.
Merkel’s political thinking is perhaps influenced by her years in chemistry and physics – before she became Germany’s chancellor, she was a researcher. Calm, rational investigation precede her decisions.
Inclined to reticence, her public pronouncements are rarely inflammatory.
Germany, then, has taken a leadership role in dealing both with global economic questions – the loan crisis of 2008 – and with European economic questions – the Greek debt crisis and the “Brexit” vote of 2016.
