At the close of the century, the EU had emerged as another leader. A powerful trading bloc, it had achieved unprecedented economic cooperation.
But early in the twenty-first century, both of these entities faced problems which sapped the energy which they had available to devote to leadership.
The U.S. dealt with a lethargic economy, starting with the 2008 burst of the “real estate bubble.” Attempts by the federal government over the following years to fix the economy only made it worse.
Diplomatically, Obama’s troop surge sent over 100,000 soldiers into Afghanistan – in the previous decade, troop levels there had averaged under 20,000 and peaked at 30,000. The “Obama surge” required getting consent from various allies, which consumed American political capital and left the U.S. with little remaining leverage in other global questions.
U.S.-Russian relations deteriorated after January 2009. American ability to manage Putin departed with outgoing Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and the incoming Hillary Clinton’s use of the word “reset” created an ambiguity which Vladimir Putin saw as a chance to press his expansionist imperialist agenda.
The EU faced its own problems: dealing with debt crises in the economies of its weaker member states, dealing with Islamic terrorist attacks in Europe, and dealing with flood of immigrants, some of who claimed to be refugees and others of whom were terrorists in disguise.
German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier describes the situations which hamstrung both the U.S and the EU:
Now, the international order that the United States and Europe helped create and sustain after World War II — an order that generated freedom, peace, and prosperity in much of the world — is under pressure. The increasing fragility of various states — and, in some cases, their complete collapse — has destabilized entire regions, especially Africa and the Middle East, sparked violent conflicts, and provoked ever-greater waves of mass migration. At the same time, state and nonstate actors are increasingly defying the multilateral rules-based system that has preserved peace and stability for so long. The rise of China and India has created new centers of power that are changing the shape of international relations. Russia’s annexation of Crimea has produced a serious rift with Europe and the United States. The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia increasingly dominates the Middle East, as the state order in the region erodes and the Islamic State, or ISIS, attempts to obliterate borders entirely.
With the U.S. and the EU both unable to provide their customary leadership, the nations of the world began to look to Germany as role model. Why Germany? This country had not sought a leadership position, and had arguably worked to avoid one.
Germany’s reliable consistency made its situation enviable. Germany had avoided accumulating large amounts of debt, and had worked its way out of a tough situation – in 2003, its unemployment rate was over 12% – and into a decade of prosperity and economic growth.
Various countries began to see Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, as a world leader. She did not take office expecting to confront a major debt crisis in the EU, but, as Stefan Kornelius writes,
Angela Merkel has been forced to confront this event and try to avert its potentially destructive effects. Unlike Helmut Kohl, she does not have the advantage of governing during a relatively easy period in German history. Kohl made the most of the favorable circumstances and the positive dynamics of European movements of political emancipation, and with a sure instinct led Germany to unification and Europe to a new era of prosperity. Merkel, on the other hand, is fighting a defensive war: she is battling against potential ruin. She cannot promise flourishing landscapes – she can only strive to prevent Europe from becoming a place of desolation.
Merkel has now become a regular figure on the world stage. Her habit of calmly and rationally analyzing situations before acting, and her avoidance of inflammatory rhetoric – especially noticeable in contrast with harsh bombastic blasts issued alternately by Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump – have made her a pole of stability.
The first two decades of the twenty-first century, then, have seen Germany pulled, against its will, into a position of global leadership.
